Possibly a worthwhile post

Here's another interesting spin on personal probability judgments.
Let's take the findings in the study below and extend them a bit.

If I say "you are possibly a genius", this can be taken as flattery and discounted.

If I say "you are possibly an asshole", then you are likely to think I really don't like you. Makes sense.


"PSYCHOLOGY: Saving Face
Gilbert J. Chin
It is well established that the perception of probabilities can be influenced by how a particular likelihood is framed or anchored, and that the consequences for a patient if the number qualifies a medical prognosis can be real and serious. Bonnefon and Villejoubert propose another context in which the diagnosis of a possible condition is not perceived to reflect its likelihood but instead is taken as warning of a dire outcome.

"Upon quizzing subjects ... after a physician had delivered an assessment of possible insomnia or deafness, they found that the condition regarded as more serious (deafness) was judged to be more likely to occur and that the use of the word possible was interpreted as a means of softening the news. In contrast, subjects who adhered to a probabilistic interpretation of the phrasing believed that both conditions were equally likely outcomes, underlining the importance of mutual understanding in phys ician-patient discussions. -- GJC"

Journal reference: Psychol. Sci. 17, 747 (2006).

Puffball Bigger Than My Head

Occasionally, we get puffballs in our yard that are bigger than my head.

I can tell others are skeptical, so I'm posting this picture. That's an adult soccer ball on one side (the pocks are from the neighbor's sons shooting at it with a BB gun), a bicycle helmet on the other (the holes are for ventilation, although they are taped over because I use this helmet in the winter).



The holes in the puffball itself were made by slugs.

Watch a hysterectomy live? No, thanks.

Under the heading of "TMI" (Too Much Information):

The U of Michigan Alumni newsletter, ever anxious to provide me with U of M news, provides me this opportunity that I don't think I'll be taking advantage of:

Science & Health
If you ever wondered what goes on inside a hospital operating room, now's your chance to find out. A live webcast from an operating room at U-M Hospital took place this week. The webcast allows viewers to watch a robot-assisted hysterectomy online. The highlight of the program was the use of the new robot technology, which causes less pain, requires a smaller incision and often results in a quicker recovery time. The procedure is archived at www.or-live.com.

Cablevision Proves the Afterlife Exists

The Wall Street Journal reports on September 22, 2006 that "Cablevision awarded options to a vice chairman (Marc Lustgarten) after his 1999 death but backdated them to make it appear they were awarded when he was still alive."

This would seem to undercut the argument that stock options are incentives for future management performance.

But, on second glance, this is proof that there is life after death. Why would such a greedy group of men as the average telecommunications upper management team share the options bounty unless Lustgarten had, in return, something he could provide?

One can imagine Marley appearing to Scrooge, not to ask him to reform, but to ask him for 666,666 options at $6.66 a share, backdated to 6/6/1866.

In return, Marley might hint at solar storms or meteors disrupting sattelite TV transmissions, lightning strikes or floods at telephone switching centers, and perhaps plagues of boils inflicted on municipal officials who don't yet see the same clear vision of the future that Cablevision Systems Corporation does.

The occasional plague of locusts might distract media attention when weak quarterly earnings were reported.

If Lustgarten (and I love that last name for a corporate executive) could arrange for congressmen to have visits from their "guardian angels", his options might be quite cost-effective relative to the standard methods of lobbying.

So, I find in this story hope for a better life in the hereafter. I've also posted this on Beliefnet.com

Where's my previous blog? Where's the bicycle stuff?

This blog was moved from my earlier blog on AOL journals. http://journals.aol.com/mikekr/ZbicyclistsZlog/ I'm moving it here because AOL seems to have created this capability in response to competition, but then just let it sit there. Images aren't handled very well, and no new features have been added since the initial roll.

I'm also separating this into two blogs: bicycling (http://zbicyclist.blogspot.com/) and this blog with everything else, which is mostly comments on news, statistics, politics and the occasional joke.